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Current Yield
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Zone Status
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Zone: 4.30% – 4.50%
Distance from 4.30%
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Zone Low
Distance from 4.50%
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Zone High
Hypothesis: With $36T+ US debt, Trump creates "good news" whenever 10Y yield approaches 4.3%–4.5% to prevent higher interest costs.
12/17 events (71%) occurred when yield ≥ 4.3%. Above 4.5%: 3/3 (100%) fell after Trump acted.
Event Study: Trump "Good News" Backtest (17 Events, Jan 2025 – Mar 2026)
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| # | Date | Yield | Zone | 10Y +5d |
S&P500 +5d | Nasdaq +5d |
BTC +5d | IHSG +5d | Trump Action |
2Y Yield
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US Treasury 2Y
10Y Yield
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US Treasury 10Y
Spread (10Y–2Y)
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Curve Signal
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Recession indicator
What to watch: When 10Y–2Y spread goes negative (inverted), historically signals recession within 6–18 months.
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Market Impact — What current yield levels historically mean for asset prices
US Total Debt
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M2 Money Supply
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Monthly (FRED M2SL)
Interest per +1% Yield
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Annual cost estimate
Debt / M2 Ratio
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Leverage indicator
Why this matters: Every +10bps in yield = ~$36B/year added interest permanently. US refinances $9–10T/year.
M2 expansion historically correlates with risk asset rallies — especially BTC (+63% avg 6mo after M2 upturn).
Debt/M2 ratio shows how leveraged the economy is relative to money supply.
Asset Correlation — Historical response to M2 expansion & debt growth
S&P 500
+12.4%
Avg 6-month gain after M2 resumes expansion (since 2020)
Nasdaq
+18.2%
Avg 6-month gain after M2 expansion — rate-sensitive tech benefits most
Bitcoin
+63%
Avg 6-month BTC gain after M2 upturn — tightest asset/liquidity correlation
IHSG
+8.7%
EM markets (IHSG) benefit from USD liquidity expansion and lower rates
VIX (Fear Index)
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Fear & Greed Score
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VIX Signal
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Market stress level
Combined Signal
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VIX + F&G composite
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Historical asset performance at current VIX/Fear levels
CNN Fear & Greed Meter
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Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed